Researchers reveal connection between marine conditions and worldwide climate through mechanical analysis instead of statistical methods.

A global team of scientists, led by Hussein Aluie, an associate professor in the University of Rochester’s Department of Mechanical Engineering and staff scientist at the University’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics, has uncovered the initial direct proof linking apparently arbitrary oceanic weather systems to the global climate.

The team published their discoveries in Science Advances.According to lead author Benjamin Storer, a research associate in Aluie’s Turbulence and Complex Flow Group, the ocean exhibits weather patterns akin to those on land, but on different time and length scales. While a terrestrial weather pattern may endure for a few days and span approximately 500 kilometers, oceanic weather patterns, such as swirling eddies, last for three to four weeks but are roughly one-fifth the size.

“For a long time, scientists have hypothesized that these pervasive and apparently haphazard movements in the ocean play a role in communicating with climate scales. However, the understanding has remained elusive because deciphering this intricate system to measure their interactions was not clear,” explains Aluie.

“We devised a framework that can precisely unravel this complexity. Surprisingly, what we discovered diverged from expectations, as it involves the mediation of the atmosphere.”The team aimed to comprehend how energy traverses diverse channels in the global ocean. They employed a mathematical approach developed by Aluie in 2019, which was subsequently integrated into an advanced code by Storer and Aluie. This enabled them to explore energy transfer across various patterns, spanning from the Earth’s circumference down to 10 kilometers.

These methodologies were then applied to ocean datasets obtained from an advanced climate model and satellite observations.

The research uncovered that oceanic weather systems undergo both intensification and attenuation when interacting with climate scales, displaying a pattern reflective of the global atmospheric circulation. Additionally, the scientists identified that the “intertropical convergence zone,” an atmospheric belt near the equator responsible for generating 30% of global precipitation, facilitates a significant amount of energy transfer, leading to ocean turbulence.

Storer and Aluie acknowledge the challenges of studying such intricate fluid motion across various scales, but they emphasize its advantages over previous attempts to establish connections between weather and climate change. They believe that their team’s efforts provide a promising framework for gaining a better understanding of the climate system.”There is considerable interest in comprehending how global warming and climate change impact extreme weather events,” notes Aluie.

“Typically, such research relies on statistical analysis, demanding extensive data to address uncertainties. Our approach, grounded in mechanistic analysis, offers an alternative that reduces these requirements and enhances our ability to discern cause and effect.”The key contributors to the investigation included Michele Buzzicotti, a research scientist at the University of Rome Tor Vergata; Hemant Khatri, a research associate at the University of Liverpool, and Stephen Griffies, a senior scientist at Princeton.

This article is republished from PhysORG under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.