Researchers Propose an Ambitious Answer to Address Climate Change, Biodiversity Decline, and Social Inequity

Oregon State University researchers have spearheaded an international scientific effort, utilizing an unprecedented 500-year dataset. This initiative aims to outline a “restorative” pathway that could steer humanity away from the most severe ecological and social consequences of climate change.

Beyond proposing a potential societal trajectory, the scientists assert that their groundbreaking plan, described as “paradigm-shifting,” can contribute to climate modeling and discussions. They emphasize that their set of actions places a strong emphasis on social and economic justice, in addition to environmental sustainability.

William Ripple from Oregon State, along with former OSU postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf and their collaborators, advocate for the inclusion of their scenario in climate models. They suggest integrating it alongside the five “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSPs) utilized by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Recognizing the potential challenges in implementing our proposed scenario amid current emission trends, political inertia, and prevalent social denial, Ripple, a distinguished professor of ecology in the OSU College of Forestry, emphasizes that its merits cannot be honestly debated unless included in the range of options.

Advocating for radical incrementalism, the approach aims to achieve significant change through small, short-term steps. It presents a necessary contrast to numerous climate scenarios that might align more closely with the existing status quo, deemed ineffective.

Ripple and colleagues from the United States, the Netherlands, and Australia present their restorative pathway in a paper published in Environmental Research Letters. This pathway is inspired by a distinctive compilation of Earth system variables vividly illustrating the surge in humanity’s resource demands since 1850, indicative of ecological overshoot.

“The supporting data underscore the urgent need for action,” emphasized Wolf, currently a scientist with Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates in Corvallis. The significant growth in human population, gross domestic product, and energy consumption, primarily dependent on fossil fuels, has led to an extraordinary increase in greenhouse gas emissions, causing profound alterations in land use and triggering a substantial decline in biodiversity.

The authors highlight that existing climate change modeling relies on multiple assumptions and factors linked to policy options and societal developments. Developed by an international team of climate scientists, economists, and energy systems modelers, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios based on policies assuming continued significant GDP growth through 2100.

“The SSPs describe plausible developments that could lead to different challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the future,” explained Wolf. These pathways are based on five narratives describing alternative socioeconomic developments, some more sustainable than others. In contrast, the proposed scenario focuses on reducing the consumption of primary resources to a level that maintains environmental pressures within planetary boundaries, with per capita GDP stabilizing over time.

Reviewing a range of variables—fossil fuel emissions, human population, GDP, land use, greenhouse gas concentrations, global temperature, vertebrate wildlife species abundance, income inequality, and meat production—the researchers paint a comprehensive picture of Earth’s profound changes over time. The income share variable, reaching back to 1820, illustrates consistent global economic inequality, with the top 10% consistently receiving at least 50% of all income, as noted by Ripple.

The restorative pathway envisions a more equitable and resilient world, emphasizing nature preservation as a natural climate solution. It prioritizes societal well-being, quality of life, gender equality, and high levels of education, contributing to low fertility rates and elevated living standards. In addition, it advocates for a rapid transition toward renewable energy.

Unlike some existing shared socioeconomic pathways, the restorative pathway does not rely on the development of carbon capture technologies, nor does it assume continuous economic growth, as the SSPs do. Ripple asserts that by prioritizing large-scale societal change, this proposed pathway could more effectively limit global warming compared to scenarios supporting increased resource consumption by wealthy nations. The authors aim to bend the curves on a broad range of planetary vital signs, offering a holistic vision to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and socioeconomic injustice. Their work presents a compelling case for humanity to embark on a journey to save the world from these intertwined environmental and social crises.

In October 2023, Ripple, Wolf, and ten other scientists published research in BioScience, revealing that Earth’s vital signs have worsened to an alarming extent, imperiling life on the planet. Ripple is also the co-author of another recent BioScience paper, examining climate change and the related biodiversity crisis from a cosmic perspective, utilizing “long-term planetary thinking.”

This article is republished from PhysORG under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.