Is it possible to prevent the destruction of Earth if a future asteroid poses a threat?

While the notion of preparing for the possibility of an asteroid collision may appear to be a hypothetical exercise, it is far from it. The frequency of impacts in the Solar System has significantly decreased over time, but it is inevitable that an asteroid will eventually make its way towards Earth. The likelihood of an impact cannot be disregarded.Determining when such an event will occur is just as challenging as rallying humanity to cooperate and make preparations for it. It is an arduous task that requires collective effort.

Here’s an undeniable fact that cannot be dismissed with mere thoughts and prayers: even a relatively small asteroid with a diameter of 500 meters can cause significant damage to Earth, delivering over 10 gigatons of energy.If it were to strike land, the impact would create a crater measuring 9 km across and 0.7 km deep. It could also generate 4 km3 of debris, which would be propelled into the atmosphere, causing firestorms upon its descent. If the asteroid were to hit the ocean, the resulting tsunamis would pose a grave threat.

In either scenario, the course of human civilization would be forever altered, to put it mildly. It all hinges on the size of the impacting object, and there are numerous asteroids larger than 500 meters. (To be fair, there are also many smaller ones.)Those fortunate enough to survive the impact of a sufficiently large asteroid would likely find themselves thrust into a struggle for survival akin to that faced by our ancient ancestors.

None of this is news to the individuals who dedicate their studies to asteroids, cataloguing the ones that pose a threat and striving to develop methods not only for predicting impacts but also for mitigating the danger. Some of these individuals, including scientists and politicians, convened at the Planetary Defence Conference 2023 to thoroughly examine all the issues surrounding an asteroid collision.

A comprehensive examination of the conference has been conducted by a team of researchers, who have delved deeper into our response. The findings of their study have been published in the Acta Astronautica journal under the title “Diplomatic, geopolitical and economic consequences of an impending asteroid threat.” The lead author, Laura Jamschon Mac Garry, is not only a diplomat but also a professor at the University of Belgrano and the University del Salvador in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

In addition to analyzing the scientific and technological aspects, the authors have taken into account various other factors. These include the legal international framework, the practices followed by nations in multilateral forums, and the viewpoints of scholars.

It is important to note that their approach is not alarmist. The report clearly states, “An asteroid impact with Earth is a very low probability event. Yet, if it were to happen, the consequences could be devastating.”This is a well-known fact. However, unlike other natural disasters such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, we have the ability to detect and prepare for an approaching asteroid. This distinct characteristic places potential asteroid impacts in a separate category altogether.

The premise of the Conference is quite straightforward: an asteroid with a diameter of 500 meters is on a collision course with Earth. This near-Earth asteroid was recently discovered in January and proved to be challenging to detect due to its orbit. The PDC (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid) classified it as a potential threat and named it 2023 PDC.

As further observations were conducted, attendees learned that the chances of 2023 PDC impacting Earth were increasing. Eventually, it was determined that the asteroid would strike our planet in October 2036, providing humanity with a lead time of 12.5 years.

This significant lead time is of utmost importance as it allows humanity to thoroughly study the asteroid, analyze its composition, and even send a spacecraft for further investigation. These prospects sound promising. However, there is a downside to such an extensive lead time.

“On the other hand, the extensive lead time also brings certain disadvantages,” state the authors.

Once the impact location is known, chaos would ensue in that particular region. Where would people evacuate to? Who would provide shelter for them? Banks would face collapse, leading to a crash in the economic system. Industries would crumble, potentially affecting agriculture and food production.

People would attempt to flee, and the maintenance of law and order could become compromised. In short, it would be a period of unpredictability and chaos. The situation might even escalate into conflicts, the rise of cults, the emergence of fascist dictators, and various other manifestations of humanity’s primal instincts. Perhaps a certain segment of the population would be unjustly blamed and confined to camps as scapegoats.

Throughout the course of history, humanity has experienced numerous occurrences without the looming threat of an asteroid impact, proving that this is not a mere work of science fiction.However, in times of chaos and disorder, there are always individuals who strive to avert the worst possible outcomes. This holds true when it comes to the potential strike of an asteroid.

The year 2011 marked a significant milestone in terms of preparedness for asteroid impacts. The United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) established the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects, bringing together governments from around the globe to develop an international response to the imminent danger of an asteroid strike.Over the years, additional committees were formed, and comprehensive plans were devised to not only detect asteroids but also to effectively divert them if necessary.

However, it is important to note that these efforts primarily revolve around scientific and technical solutions. Readers of Universe Today are likely well-acquainted with the potential risks posed by asteroid impacts, ongoing endeavors to identify all potentially hazardous asteroids, and missions such as NASA’s DART.

But this new analysis digs into the societal aspect of an imminent strike beyond detecting and deflecting. Here are some of the questions the study points out that need to be addressed in advance:

• If evacuations are required, how will it be organized? Will it be the most vulnerable who get priority? The most productive?
• How will societal institutions react? Will universities, social media, religions, and others react with catastrophic thinking or with awareness-raising?
• Is there a responsibility to welcome other citizens in case of disaster (Internal Displacement vs. Cross-Border Displacement)?
• Who will pay? How and when?
• If we need to use an atomic warhead to destroy an impactor, how will that be organized? Will there be mistrust?

This isn’t a complete list, but it indicates the kind of confounding complexity we’ll be staring down if an asteroid approaches Earth.

Here are some others:

• What role will developing countries play versus the role space-faring nations will play?
• Will geopolitical rivals strive to gain an advantage?
• If we have 12.5 years of lead time, how will democracies based on four-year governing terms prepare?

The authors believe that the primary issue concerns the use of a nuclear explosive device (NED.)

Given that the five permanent members of the Security Council, each possessing the power to veto the utilization of a NED in space, are all nuclear powers, it becomes imperative to engage in discussions encompassing geopolitical and economic aspects, and potentially even cultural and religious dimensions, as stated by the authors.This subject matter may not be particularly enjoyable, but it does instill a sense of responsibility in certain individuals. Ultimately, the fate of humanity on Earth is likely to be intertwined. In a way, an asteroid impact represents the ultimate trial for our species. On the other hand, climate change is a gradual threat that we ourselves have brought upon us.

However, asteroids present a different scenario. Their collisions are entirely natural, as are the resulting extinctions.If we aspire to survive such impacts and avert potential extinctions, it is crucial that we make thorough preparations. While preparations have already commenced, this paper highlights the means to sustain our readiness in practical ways.

This article is republished from sciencealert under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.